The Forecast
To contextualise this forecast, we are talking about something that is, uh, 7 or 8 or 9 days ahead of us at the moment. Um, as a result, the uncertainty is high so that contextualises things I’m about to tell you. Um, generally we are looking at similar sort of weather features that are forecast but the timing is a little bit uncertain at the moment.
Edward Townsend-Medlock, Bureau Of Meteorology Forecaster
On December 26, 3 eddies – 1 east of Sydney, Ulladulla & Tasmania respectively – associated with the East Australian Current breaking up well north of Sydney, are forecast to produce north-to-south flows of up to 2.8 to 3.2 kilometres per hour (1.5 to 1.7 knots) during the Sydney-Hobart Yacht Race, which could play a role in tactics at the start.
The race start is forecast to feature light south-easterly winds in the 9 to 19 kilometre per hour (5 to 10 knot) range which, when combined with these sea flows, will favour tactics rather than a yacht’s designed speed. These winds are driven by a high-pressure system that will be over the Tasman Sea, whose exact position could vary the wind’s strength.
Generated far south-east are “mature” &, combined with the forecasted wind, ” quite organised” swells of 1 to 2 metres at periods of 10 to 13 seconds outside the Sydney Heads.
On the 27th of December, the high-pressure system will then move further east, shifting the winds northerly along the New South Wales coast & reaching 37 to 46 kilometres per hour (20 to 25 knots).
Asked about Bass Strait when the high-pressure system moves east, Edward Townsend-Medlock, Bureau Of Meteorology Forecaster said there the winds will be calm:
Yeah so at that time, the Bass Strait, they are looking at light & variable winds since there isn’t really a, a weather feature coming through that particular area, um, so you can imagine as that high moves to the east, the northerlies along the New South Wales coast but yeah, for the leaders, these, they’re in those light & variable conditions that are, you know, typical of the Bass Strait when there’s, there is no westerly there at that particular moment.
Edward Townsend-Medlock, Bureau Of Meteorology Forecaster
This long-range forecast is only for the 26th & 27th of December.
Further ahead, it’s very difficult to say. Usually a front or 2 will come through & bring some stronger winds through the Bass Strait but it’s far beyond like the forecast skill for the models at the moment so we can really give information on those 1st 2 days of the race.
Edward Townsend-Medlock, Bureau Of Meteorology Forecaster
A major update of the weather forecast will be made on the 24th of December (Christmas Eve) at 9am when a compulsory race briefing is held for all crew members of the non-virtual race.
Navigator Reaction
Alice Tarnawski, XI co-navigator, Chris Wild, Scallywag co-navigator & Adrienne Cahalan, Aragon navigator, all agreed the forecast was favourable for their yachts:
Yes, it’s favourable conditions f, for us. We’re, uh, long & skinny – um, a Marten 72, um, & so, yeah, it should be, should be great for our boat & um, you know, you, you, I, I think one of the great things about this race when you got a forecast like this, is the variety of conditions & uh, the way you handle the transition zone so, um, everybody will have to be on their toes.
Adrienne Cahalan, ‘Aragon’ navigator
Yeah, well, I, I think in a forecast like this where it’s a bit more of a chess match than a, than a drag race, it’s, um, having 2 navigators helps, helps a lot so we divide & conquer.
We’ve had a great campaign in Europe where we’ve sailed the boat in lots of different conditions & had great success & so the team is well, um, well-versed &, & battle-hardened I guess, to, to deal with whatever the for, forecast throws at us so we, we like that.
Chris Wild, ‘Scallywag’ co-navigator
If I could add to that, I am also (a co-navigator) so Stan Honey is coming to join us. He’s our primary navigator & I am his offsider & uh, similar to you, I am really looking forward to having someone to go off and on watch with.
Alice Tarnawski, ‘XI‘ co-navigator
Scallywag will start the Great Race South with refined systems & a stronger yacht but 1 thing that hasn’t changed is its slimness. It’s co-navigator, Chris Wild, said that slimmer yachts like his & Aragon, which as a result of their design have less drag in the water, will benefit from the light winds at the start and in Bass Strait but Scallywag will like any forecast in the end:
We like that sort of scenario & also the design of the boat compared to some of the other super-maxis, um, you know, we’re, we’re a skinny boat as well compared to Comanche and LawConnect, um & that definitely will, will favour us in that, in those light wind conditions that we were talking about in, in Bass Strait.
At that point, when it’s really light & funky, the navigators’ not doing a whole lot. Um, the crew’s really trying to get the boat going so that we can be, you know, getting ready for the next, next part of the race. Yep, yep, it’s up to the sailors at that point.
Chris Wild, ‘Scallywag’ co-navigator
While Chris Wild will find light & “funky” conditions in Bass Strait boring to navigate, for Alice Tarnawski, she implies her XI crew may start to annoy her had she not have a senior navigator to share the duties with on the record-breaking yacht:
Um, you don’t normally get a lot of sleep as a navigator because everyone is always asking you questions or trying to working out where we are in a system & especially with a light, variable forecast like this, everyone’s poking you wanting to know what’s going on so I am really grateful there is going to be someone so experienced sitting beside me & we’ve had a lot of conversations in the last few weeks about how we are going to divide the role up & um, manage the communication between us, um, the sailing team, the tactician & of course, um, Mark Richards, the skipper, so yeah, it’s, it’s pretty cool to have that, um, ability on a, on a big boat to have more than 1 navigator.
Alice Tarnawski, ‘XI‘ co-navigator

Photograph: Ashley Dart/Cruising Yacht Club Of Australia
Adrienne Cahalan, whose yacht, Aragon, recently got refitted with a longer keel, heavier bulb, new standing rigging & a new sail range, agrees with Alice in that the light wind of varying directions in Bass Strait will become “hard work” for a single navigator:
It’s nice to see some consistency so early in 2 of the models that, uh, we often use around here & um, f, for, uh, it having that light and variable wind in Bass Strait is going to make it very interesting. It’s going to, ah, be a lot of hard work for the nav, navigators I’d expect.
Adrienne Cahalan, ‘Aragon’ navigator
Regarding the long-range forecast, she said:
It will be nice for many different sizes and types of boats & uh, 1 of the things we’ll be watching very closely is when that front comes through or if it comes through on the 28th because, um, our boat size is 72 foot (22 metres) & we got the 100 footers (31 meters) here so, uh, we will be watching carefully, the, uh, the timing of a front around Tasman Island which will be, you know, determine a lot about how, uh, all the boats go on handicap.
Adrienne Cahalan, ‘Aragon’ navigator
However, Clare Costanzo, navigator for Ambition, isn’t focusing on the 28th of December until at least after the race start:
You can’t really be paying too much attention to the last bit of the race because for us it’s potentially, you know, 2 to 3 days away so a lot of that will be while we are out there, um, on the water watching the other guys for the last bit of the race.
Clare Costanzo, ‘Ambition’ navigator
In the end, David Turton, Wild Thing 100 navigator, whose yacht now has a full-sized 31 metre (100 foot) rig, said regarding why the leaders lead & the winners win:
Always looking at the barometer & the sky & the sat (satellite) pics. That’s, that’s, they’re my 3 go-tos. If all else fails, work it out for yourself.
David Turton, ‘Wild Thing 100‘ navigator
Meanwhile, XI‘s “modifications”, as earlier reported, is an appendage remodelling along with new sails & software:
We’ve got a new processor on the boat. Um, we’ve got new systems. We’ve got a whole bunch of new technology on board & we’re, we’re learning how to sail this boat that’s – amazing so yeah, it’s been a cool process.
Alice Tarnawski, ‘XI‘ co-navigator
Spectator Boating
Also, the official spectator boating map has been published by the New South Wales (NSW) Government:

Image: NSW Government
The main special spectator boating rules/schedule for the event are:
- If you’re only watching the start & won’t follow the fleet, position yourself on the western side.
- From 11:30am, in the regulated area between Garden Island/Bradley’s Head to the Heads, a maximum speed of 11 kilometres per hour (6 knots) with no wash allowed & all non-competing vessels in the regulated area unhoisting their sails immediately. Competing vessels are exempt from the speed/wash limits inside the regulated area from 12:50pm.
- At 12pm, the exclusion zone, which is the race start area, is activated, within which and surrounding it can be no passive craft (see examples below) or anchoring. The only spectator vessel allowed in the exclusion zone is The Jackson, which will have the starting cannon on board at the rear for firing & starting the race.
- For safety after the race start (scheduled 1pm), it is advised that small vessels should avoid Sydney Heads or going towards or out of them.
- At 2:20pm, normal Harbour operations resume.
Passive craft includes canoes, kayaks, surf skis, paddleboards, sailing dinghies & inflatable rafts and boats.
This announcement was made on December 18.
The Sydney-Hobart Yacht Race 2025 – its 80th anniversary – begins at 1pm Australian Eastern Daylight Time on the 26th of December, Boxing Day.








You must be logged in to post a comment.